No one knows radio better than you. You’re in the trenches. You’re experienced. You can make most important decisions in your sleep, because you’ve faced similar situations time and again. I respect that. But in my world of chasing curiosities, I wonder about the direction our industry will take.
Will the industry look the same in one year, or in five? Or will there be dramatic differences? Will the revenue streams at your radio station come from the same places, the same advertising? Will local advertisers follow national trends? Is money shifting before your eyes, without your even being aware of it? If you listen to the Silicon Valley types who often speak at our Convergence conferences, you’ll hear them say that radio will cease to exist in its present form because we cannot deliver the customized experience consumers want.
On the other hand, if you listen to your own experience and to some industry leaders, you may hear them say that we’re stable even without big digital revenues, and all the hype about digital and streaming is a waste of energy. “Stick to your knitting,” they say. “Focus on doing great radio. Our death has been hailed with every new technology, and they’ve been wrong every time.” Who’s right? Probably both. At least for a while.
Look at the history of any industry that has been through dramatic change, and you’ll hear the same dialogue: “Things are fine. Business is solid. Customers have not gone away, we’re strong — nothing can affect us, because of our deep market share.” Many an industry believed its own defensive rhetoric. They believed what they wanted to believe. And many an industry turned out to be wrong. What about you?
What do you want to believe? There are always early warning signs. Veterans hear that others, often outsiders who know little about the industry, are working on paradigm-breaking change that could dramatically disrupt the present model. Signals of change include a lot of publicity surrounding disruptive models, as the press predicts that these new models will kill the older industry. A new generation of business owners — often the children of business owners — will claim to have a better way, one the older generation can’t see. You may have longtime customers dipping their toes in new, experimental waters.
Some established industries take defensive measures to prove they’re still strong, but more often the prospect of change is met with denial. And in radio, we tend to ignore the outsiders. We know more about the industry than they do. How many programmers do you know who say they can outprogram Pandora? Change is met with resistance. It may even appear, for a while, as though it’s not going to happen after all.
And then, smack! It strikes like a thief in the night. Though I believe radio remains strong and I know each of us has a responsibility to “stick to our knitting,” I also know radio is seeing every early warning sign. The strong adoption of new online models, advertisers’ growing desire to be more digital-centric, a generational shift in control of businesses — and even now, strong denial from within our own ranks. The first shift will be advertisers shifting dollars to digital. The second wave will be a bigger shift by consumers to new forms of distribution. It’s happening gradually now and being ignored because the numbers appear insignificant.
My guess is that it will take a full seven years before all of America is using digital dashboards that give them access to any online audio alternative in the car. This is the big push from Ford and others, and it’s a reality we need to explore. Sticking to our knitting is practical. Chances are your company demands it, and chances are corporate is not very concerned about the digital audio shift. While some companies, like Clear Channel and Cumulus, are willing to invest in businesses that may replace their existing business model, most others are not.
What about you? Though I cannot decide for you, I think employment security today involves deep study of the digital trends around you. Those who don’t get ahead of the trends will always be playing catch-up. Ultimately, you’re in control at your station, and you need to make your own decisions. Stop, look at the signals, and think deeply about what others are starting to believe. You may come to the conclusion that it’s in your best interest to start exploring what those outsiders are thinking.
Some time before, I needed to buy a house for my organization but I did not earn enough cash and could not order anything. Thank God my mother adviced to take the personal loans at banks. Thence, I acted that and was happy with my commercial loan.
Posted by: Greta32Hutchinson | February 02, 2013 at 10:55 PM
I think Pandora is the NEW and BIG deal. Period the end. Im out of radio after 25 years and sad by the demise of something once very cool…its a freaking disaster because of folks like Lew Dickey who has encouraged repeater radio and NON local radio.
Someone will write a book or create a documentary and it will be Lew Dickey that will one day be pointed at as the reason radio became obsolete…we had our chance to be ULTRA local and allow local programmers to create outstanding radio content instead a few jerks with power destroyed it.
Posted by: EDWARD TODD | March 12, 2012 at 02:17 PM
Mind you the description sounds interesting, in a "driving past an road accident scene" kind of way.
Posted by: Nike Free Run | March 05, 2012 at 08:57 AM
"Putting all that backing behind HD Radio at the expense of learning how technology was evolving around you is about to take its toll. Radio won't die, but it will never regain its full balance."
Ken is absolutely correct. I can't wait to see what toll HD Radio takes. Soon, hugh? How the entire radio industry, Congress, the FCC, and the automakers allowed themselves to be duped by Struble is amazing. Struble must be brillant. Radio was doing fairly-well until Struble came along with his massive fraud and distraction.
Posted by: Greg Smith (HDRadioFarce) | February 27, 2012 at 07:40 PM
In the early 80s, I would go to meetings with David Saperstein and try to get GMs and owners to run traffic reports on the radio. Many would not/could not see how a traffic report belonged on a music station.
In 1990 I was on the management team that put the nation's 4th sports talk radio station on the air. Many music and talk radio GMs and GSMs laughed at the format - who was going to listen to an all-sports station?
In 1997 I began writing about how the internet would affect radio; and have called many times for GMs and PDs to be more aware of the drift that's occurring, due to the "accountability" factor. All that we've heard since was "we're radio, and we do local better than anyone."
For everyone in radio, if you are not looking/listening to how new media is affecting youth - and even elders, in many cases - you will certainly be surprised in five years time.
Putting all that backing behind HD Radio at the expense of learning how technology was evolving around you is about to take its toll. Radio won't die, but it will never regain its full balance.
For those who believe that producing quality local programming is the answer, even that may be a little late -http://www.audiographics.com/agd/010312-1.htm
Changing to meet today's advertiser and audience needs is the only option left, with finding people who understand how to make that change happen being a vital next step. (Hint: They are not the same folks you've seen year-after-year on panels at radio industry conventions.)
Posted by: Ken Dardis | February 27, 2012 at 07:23 PM
I can only comment right now on my own experience. I'm 37 and listen to my ipod approx 30% of the time, radio 60%, and Pandora maybe 10% just so I can be exposed to songs that might not make the cut on radio. my favorite kind of music isnt available locally on the radio. But it IS for the majority of listeners. Keep the DJs live and learn how to make commercials that don't annoy the heck out of people and radio will remain strong longer than we think.
Posted by: Duane Christensen | February 13, 2012 at 08:48 PM